Scientists from IIT Kanpur and Hyderabad have developed a mathematical model to predict the outcome of COVID 19 surge in India. A few days ago they had predicted that the current wave of COVID in India would peak by May 11 – May 15 at 33-35 lakh active cases. But based on the rising numbers across India, they have now revised their prediction upwards.

They now predict that this wave of COVID 19 will peak at 38-48 lakh active cases between May 14 – May 18. The prediction accounts for 3.3 – 4.4 lakh new cases on a day.

These predictions are based on 3 factors. The first is contact rate – it is the measure of how many people an infected person can transmit the infection to in 1 day. The next factor is reach – this measures the exposure level of the population to the pandemic. The third factor is called epsilon – it is the ratio of detected and undetected cases. Based on these 3 numbers, these scientists have made the estimation of peak in mid-May. We all pray that the current surge peaks quickly and India can start to breathe normally again.


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